September 2026

The North Sea
Dividend: What Britain
Gets Back

This Public First report, commissioned by Adura, assesses the economic, fiscal and sustainability implications of the company’s operations in the UK North Sea.

Download the report

Public First
Commissioned by Adura

Executive summary

The UK North Sea stands at a critical juncture. The policy framework governing the UK Continental Shelf will have a substantial impact on economic output, jobs and tax contributions associated with the oil and gas sector.

Taken together, the analysis shows that the policy framework for the North Sea will have consequences well beyond the basin itself. It will shape jobs and investment across the UK (though particularly in Scotland), influence the time profile and magnitude of public revenues, and determine whether the UK can retain the skills, infrastructure and industrial capacity needed for both today’s energy system and tomorrow’s.

All policy scenarios in this report are compliant with Labour’s manifesto commitment on exploration licensing.

“Rosebank and Jackdaw are great projects of which we should be proud.”

Nick Butler, Visiting Professor at King’s College London and former Senior Policy Adviser to Gordon Brown

Headline finding

£9.1bn

The clearest like-for-like assessment of the effect of policy is the comparison between the “supportive and stable” and “status quo” scenarios, which use the same commodity price assumptions and indicate an additional £9.1 billion of GVA between 2026 and 2035 under the more supportive framework.

Key findings

£10.8bn The specific economic loss between 2026 and 2035 if key oil projects like Rosebank are not consented (“oil left in the ground” scenario).
£30.5bn Cumulative revenue by 2049-50 under “Molecules”, the strongest fiscal outcome of all the scenarios.
14,010 The number of jobs supported by Adura a year with strong support for domestic production.
6.1Mt The projected saving in emissions from otherwise imported oil and gas in the year 2035, noting stable rules and new projects approved.

The economic impact of Adura

Across the five scenarios modelled for this report, Adura supports between £15.2 billion and £46.0 billion of gross value added (GVA) between 2026 and 2035, in 2026 prices. Over the same period, it supports between 7,100 and 14,010 jobs a year on average across the UK economy, more than half of which are jobs in Scotland.

Mean Adura salaries are more than twice the UK-wide and Aberdeen averages and are broadly comparable with pay across the wider UK oil and gas extraction sector.

Average jobs supported by Adura per year, 2026-2035

Scenario	Jobs
“Molecules”	14010
Supportive and stable	13860
Oil left in the ground	10530
Status quo	9540
“Electrons”	7100

Source: Public First economic modelling

Fiscal impacts

As “Molecules” also assumes higher commodity prices, the clearest like-for-like policy comparison is between the “supportive and stable” and the “status quo” scenarios, both of which use the same benign price assumptions. Over the first decade, the “status quo” generates higher cumulative revenues: £7.5 billion compared with £5.0 billion, largely because Energy Profits Levy (EPL) is assumed to remain in place for longer.

However, this position reverses over time. The retained scenarios therefore show that supportive policy can sustain both a larger economic contribution and a more durable long-term tax base.

Adura - Total Tax Revenues (Direct and Supply Chain), Cumulative from 2026-2027, £million

Year	“Molecules”	Supportive and stable	Status quo	Oil left in the ground	“Electrons”
2026-27	567	307	302	288	364
2027-28	755	493	873	446	813
2028-29	1,363	677	1,912	597	1,351
2029-30	2,794	843	3,213	723	1,814
2030-31	4,653	1,375	4,408	850	2,201
2031-32	6,265	2,055	5,168	1,130	2,515
2032-33	7,594	2,645	5,848	1,422	2,777
2033-34	8,863	3,237	6,434	1,716	2,993
2034-35	10,359	4,039	6,976	2,084	3,186
2035-36	12,079	5,047	7,483	2,452	3,363
2036-37	13,827	6,094	7,947	2,861	3,508
2037-38	15,653	7,222	8,384	3,336	3,645
2038-39	17,589	8,449	8,776	3,788	3,790
2039-40	19,429	9,611	9,099	4,163	3,919
2040-41	21,153	10,686	9,348	4,423	4,020
2041-42	22,676	11,624	9,543	4,593	4,094
2042-43	23,955	12,394	9,733	4,682	4,173
2043-44	25,151	13,127	9,916	4,797	4,253
2044-45	26,313	13,855	10,097	4,959	4,304
2045-46	27,362	14,509	10,271	5,113	4,347
2046-47	28,299	15,088	10,427	5,240	4,383
2047-48	29,139	15,597	10,561	5,352	4,410
2048-49	29,860	16,015	10,627	5,411	4,437
2049-50	30,503	16,379	10,659	5,436	4,469

Source: Adura, ONS, Public First analysis

The five scenarios

±“Status quo” of managed decline (benign conditions)

Assumes the continuation of unfavourable policy priorities despite stable prices (oil prices averaging $70/bbl and and gas prices averaging 70p/therm over the forecast horizon). The Energy Profits Levy (EPL) remains in place until 2030, with a slow transition to the UK Oil and Gas Revenue Levy (OGRL), leading to a managed decline of assets. Adura’s investment is restricted to Rosebank, Jackdaw, and necessary infills; all other prospective projects (e.g., Tornado, Mid North Sea High, Clair Ridge Extension) are not approved.

±“Supportive and stable” policy environment (benign conditions)

±“Oil left in the ground” (benign conditions)

This scenario is similar to the one above, with the implementation of OGRL by 2027 and prices of $70/bbl for oil and 70p/therm for gas averaging over the forecast horizon. However, in contrast to the supportive and stable scenario, there is a less permissive policy environment with respect to oil extraction. Rosebank is not consented. Other Adura projects including Clair CRX, Schiehallion Phase B onwards and Mariner West/East are not approved.

±“Molecules” (National Energy Security)

A scenario prioritising domestic capacity amid high energy prices. It assumes overwhelming cross-party and public pressure to secure energy, resulting in strong support for domestic oil and gas production in the years through to 2050. The EPL ends by 2027 with no OGRL in its place. All Adura projects are approved. Prices assumed are $100/bbl oil and 100p/therm for gas averaging over the forecast horizon.

±“Electrons” (Electricity priority)

The comparison between “Molecules” and “Electrons” illustrates the full range of modelled outcomes and should not be interpreted as an estimate of the effect of policy alone.

Read the full report

This report sets out the facts clearly and objectively. It examines how different policy and market scenarios would affect Adura’s contribution to the UK economy, public finances and wider strategic objectives.